![]() ![]() Welcome to a new installment of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. 86 Comments May 2023 Macro and Market Musings: Monetary Policy and Inflation Let’s take a look… Continue reading “Flexibility is Overrated – SWR Series Part 58” → Posted on JJby Posted in Safe Withdrawal Rates Tagged Asset Allocation, bonds, equities, finance, Flexibility, investing, personal finance, safe withdrawal rate, Sequence of Return Risk, simulations. Propose a better method for modeling flexibility and gauging its impact on safe withdrawal amounts.Comment on a recent post by two fellow personal finance bloggers and showcase some of the weaknesses of their approach.Provide a simple chart and a few back-of-the-envelope calculations to demonstrate the flexibility folly.In today’s post, I like to accomplish three things: We can throw out the 4% Rule and make it the 5.5% Rule. If we are flexible – so we are told – we don’t have to worry much about sequence risk. It’s almost like a personal finance “zombie” topic that, after I thought I put it to rest once and for all, always comes back when you least expect it. This month, I initially planned to write about the effects of timing Social Security in the context of safe withdrawal simulations. Fifty-eight parts now, and the new ideas come faster than I can write posts these days. Let’s take a look.I wonder if I’ll ever run out of material for the Safe Withdrawal Series. So, color us more than curious.īut before we sign off, we have new numbers from Backblaze that give us a nibble at its Q3 results. And when double-digit multiples applied to profit and not revenue. Its IPO is a harkening back to the time when it was somewhat difficult to convince private-market investors to value your company in the nine-figures, let alone 10. Which makes Backblaze nearly unique from our perspective. The examples roll from memory: Robinhood was worth dozens of billions when it went public Coinbase was as well when it direct listed NerdWallet is going to be a public unicorn merely on the strength of the written word and AllBirds? More like AllUnicorn. Indeed, even some of the smaller or less traditional companies that we’ve seen debut in recent quarters have had valuations north of $1 billion. Which is notable given the sheer heft of many tech companies we’ve seen go public lately. That means that Backblaze is going public as a non-unicorn. Quick extrapolation indicates that at the top end of its price range, Backblaze’s IPO could value the storage firm at $684.3 million. Notably the company’s fully diluted valuation is quite a bit higher, with Renaissance Capital reporting that at $16 per share, Backblaze’s valuation inclusive of shares that have been earned, if not yet exercised via options or similar, to be $644 million. And it has, namely an S-1/A filing indicating that the company expects to price its IPO between $15 and $17 per share.Īt its IPO price range and 28,545,893 shares expected to be outstanding after its IPO, Backblaze is worth $428.2 million to $485.3 million. Since it was smaller in revenue terms than most tech companies going public these days, we deferred on judging its worth until Backblaze itself provided some guidance. But when it came to pricing, we had little idea of how to value the company. ![]() With a central core of content to help power customer acquisition and a huge swath of customers, it was an interesting cloud storage play. When Backblaze first filed to go public, TechCrunch found it a compelling company. ![]()
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